Kinetic and Arrhenius modelling of banana quality loss for application in cold-chain management

Banana shelf life along tropical supply chains depends on the distinction between mature-green storage and warmer retail exposure, yet few studies have integrated both thermal regimes into a single predictive framework for ‘Prata’ bananas. This study evaluated temperature-dependent quality loss in mature-green bananas stored at 10, 15, 20 and 28 °C for 20 days at 70 ± 2% relative humidity, without exogenous ripening induction, to establish a kinetic and Arrhenius-based approach for shelf-life prediction. Peel color, firmness, weight loss, pH, titratable acidity, soluble solids, starch and sugars were monitored during storage. Zero-, first- and second-order models were fitted to each quality attribute, and the temperature dependence of the selected rate constants was described by the Arrhenius equation. Not all variables were equally suitable for predictive purposes: some peel color coordinates showed non-monotonic behavior during degreening and browning, whereas weight loss and firmness provided the most robust combination of monotonic evolution, kinetic fit and Arrhenius consistency. Shelf life decreased markedly as temperature increased, reflecting faster transpiration and softening under warm conditions. For comparative modelling, operational rejection thresholds of 5% weight loss and 50% firmness loss were adopted. Lower-temperature treatments delayed visual and textural deterioration, whereas 20–28 °C accelerated ripening and shortened marketable life. Although 10 °C produced the slowest deterioration, this condition should be interpreted as a lower-bound treatment rather than a general commercial recommendation for banana storage.