Digital Financial Inclusion and Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces: Evidence from China

Agricultural new quality productive forces (ANQP) provide an important foundation for high-quality agricultural development and sustainable rural transformation. Using panel data for 30 Chinese provinces from 2011 to 2022, this study examines the effect of digital financial inclusion (DFI) on ANQP and the channels through which that effect operates. The results show that DFI is significantly and positively associated with ANQP. A one-standard-deviation increase in DFI is associated with an increase in ANQP equivalent to approximately 64.35% of its sample mean. Green technological innovation serves as a statistically significant transmission channel, although its indirect effect accounts for only 3.31% of the total effect. The relationship between DFI and ANQP exhibits a double-threshold pattern with respect to the level of DFI and a single-threshold pattern with respect to regional economic development, with the estimated coefficients increasing gradually across regimes. Decomposing DFI shows that coverage breadth, usage depth, and digitization all contribute positively to ANQP. Further analysis of the outcome dimensions indicates that DFI is positively associated with agricultural laborers, agricultural labor objects, and agricultural labor resources. The estimated association is also larger in regions with more developed traditional financial systems. These results provide a multidimensional and stage-based understanding of the relationship between digital finance and agricultural productive-capability upgrading.