Pricing and Blockchain Traceability Decisions for Low-Carbon Products in a Dual-Channel Supply Chain with Government Subsidies and Risk Aversion

Within the framework of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), the transition toward green and low-carbon development has achieved broad international consensus. Blockchain technology offers an effective instrument for surmounting the trust bottleneck in low-carbon products; however, its substantial costs and market uncertainty constrain firm adoption. By developing a decision model for blockchain traceability investment and pricing of low-carbon products under various combinations of manufacturer risk preferences and government subsidies in a dual-channel supply chain, this study investigates the composite mechanisms through which government subsidies, channel structure, and risk aversion preferences jointly shape traceability investment and pricing decisions. The principal findings are as follows. The manufacturer’s traceability investment is synergistically promoted by consumer trust and the direct channel proportion through a “market pull–channel push” mechanism, yet is suppressed by risk aversion; furthermore, excessive risk aversion attenuates the incentive effect of consumer trust. The optimal design of government subsidies must be calibrated to the direct-channel share and risk preference characteristics, with higher subsidies warranted under “low direct-channel share–high risk aversion” conditions. Bilateral risk aversion intensifies the conservative strategic orientation across the supply chain, necessitating adaptive adjustments to subsidy levels by the government. This study furnishes theoretical underpinnings for corporate decision-making regarding blockchain traceability investments in low-carbon products and for the design of differentiated government subsidy schemes, thereby holding positive implications for advancing digital technology deployment in low-carbon product supply chains and fostering sustainable consumption.