Reassessing coercion theory through the lens of the space domain

Coercion theory traditionally encompasses three elements: a clearly communicated demand, an explicit threat that conveys the consequences of failing to comply, and reassurance that cooperation will be reciprocated. Yet, in practice, coercive strategies often fall short; all forms of coercion may not neatly fit into classical paradigms. In this article, we leverage the space domain to explore the enduring strengths and limitations of coercion theory in the contemporary age. We make three arguments. First, interactions in space illustrate how coercive strategies can be more ambiguous than traditional coercion theory might expect. Second, much coercive activity in space is more about creating uncertainty or friction within the adversary, rather than the threat or imposition of direct, high costs. Finally, the space domain offers a way for scholars to think more holistically and systematically about coercive strategies. We evaluate the implications for coercion theory and international security more broadly.