LAB #1898 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3% (+1.4pp, n=156) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades entering outside that band. In the current window, the two XAUUSD shorts (entries at 11:20 and 09:55) and the EURJPY short at 10:35 likely fall outside this band based on typical phase timing, but without phase data per trade I can only estimate. If those three were excluded, you remove 2 losses and 1 win — net PnL improves slightly (losses −2, win −1), but win rate on remaining trades rises from 3/10 to 3/7 (42.9% vs 30%). The rejected USDJPY trade would remain excluded, so no change there. Overall, the filter would have trimmed losing trades more than winners in this small sample, but the sample is too noisy to confirm the +1.4pp backtest edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a moderate phase filter could r Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-06
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22472657
Primary Topic
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
Type
preprint
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LAB #1898 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
preprint

LAB #1898 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3% (+1.4pp, n=156) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying a MODERATE phase-distance filter (5–10°) would have excluded trades entering outside that band. In the current window, the two XAUUSD shorts (entries at 11:20 and 09:55) and the EURJPY short at 10:35 likely fall outside this band based on typical phase timing, but without phase data per trade I can only estimate. If those three were excluded, you remove 2 losses and 1 win — net PnL improves slightly (losses −2, win −1), but win rate on remaining trades rises from 3/10 to 3/7 (42.9% vs 30%). The rejected USDJPY trade would remain excluded, so no change there. Overall, the filter would have trimmed losing trades more than winners in this small sample, but the sample is too noisy to confirm the +1.4pp backtest edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, a moderate phase filter could r Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Infrared Target Detection Methodologies
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LAB #1898 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance MODERATE (5-10deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 33.3 — E8 Intelligence Research — Andrew Stewart Caldin · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS