Analysing the challenges of fiscal federalism and social fragmentation in Banadir region as a potential federal member state of Somalia

Fiscal federalism and social fragmentation are associated with the perception of regional autonomy in fragile federal systems, but they have not yet been fully explored in the case of the Banadir region. Data were collected through a cross-sectional quantitative survey of 100 participants from civil society representatives, community leaders, government officials, academics and business actors through purposive eligibility and stratified sampling. Descriptive statistics and ordinary least squares multiple regression were performed using SPSS Version 25. Fiscal federalism challenges (M = 4.19) and social fragmentation challenges (M = 4.03) were reported as high-challenge items. The regression model was statistically significant, F(2, 97) = 44.874, p < 0.001, and explained 48.1% of the variance in perceived potential member-state autonomy (R² = 0.481; adjusted R² = 0.470). Fiscal federalism challenges ( β = 0.438, p < 0.001) and social fragmentation challenges ( β = 0.391, p < 0.001) were significantly associated with perceived autonomy. The positive associations suggest that higher awareness of governance issues is associated with higher levels of support for the need to improve fiscal arrangements, constitutional clarification, and inclusive governance mechanisms, and not that challenges per se are more likely to lead to greater autonomy. The results contribute to the discussions on sustainable governance, highlighting the importance of fiscal accountability, institutional capacity and social cohesion as governance conditions in fragile federal settings. These are dimensions that are applicable to the broader discussion of SDG 10, SDG 11 and SDG 16, but are not measured in this study.