Mapping changes in ecosystem wealth associated with cities expansion: the case of 9 Asian countries

Urban expansion is an important driver of environmental change, leading to land-cover conversion and changes in ecosystem wealth. While previous studies have assessed the national effects of urbanization on ecosystems, few have attributed these effects to specific cities based on their spatial expansion. Here, we assess the spatial extent and monetary value of ecosystems associated with urban expansion, using the natural extent of cities rather than administrative boundaries. By leveraging high-resolution data (100 m) from the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL), we analyze urban expansion across nine Asian countries (India, Iran, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Nepal, Pakistan, the Philippines, Sri Lanka, and Vietnam) between 2000 and 2025. Our findings reveal substantial disparities between administrative and natural city boundaries, with ecosystem changes often extending beyond jurisdictional limits. We estimate the economic value of ecosystems affected by urban expansion using the concept of natural capital from the Inclusive Wealth Index (IWI) and reveal a total reduction of natural capital for all years, with a maximum decrease of 16.6 million USD in 2000 and a minimum decrease of 12.8 million USD in 2025 in the 9 countries. Results highlight that urbanization disproportionately affects grasslands, with the effect most pronounced in Vietnam and Sri Lanka. The Bien Hoa metropolitan area experiences the highest city-level ecosystem value loss, at 11 million USD between 2000 and 2025. We also quantify the ecosystem wealth at risk of reduction due to urban expansion, which we value at 24.7 million USD in 2030 across all countries analyzed. Thus, the study emphasizes the necessity for integrated urban planning approaches that transcend administrative boundaries and promote collaborative governance. We provide a systematic baseline that helps policymakers account for ecosystem wealth at risk while supporting sustainable urban planning. City-specific interactive maps produced by this study further allow urban managers to locate areas of highest expansion risk.