Ranking-Based Surrogate Modeling for Bayesian Optimization under Small-Data Conditions

Abstract Bayesian optimization (BO) is widely used for reaction optimization, but under small-data conditions, regression of absolute objective values may not align with the practical goal of prioritizing promising experiments. Here, we compared ranking-based BO (RankBO) combined with Thompson sampling (Rank-TS) with regression-based BO using two reaction benchmarks. Rank-TS showed a clear advantage on Direct Pd-catalyzed arylation in optimization performance, global ranking quality, and recovery of high-yielding conditions. For Suzuki–Miyaura coupling, which comprised 12 substrate combinations, its improvement was small in the pooled analysis. However, in the equal-weight macro analysis across the 12 substrate-defined search spaces, Rank-TS showed higher ranking quality and faster high-yield-condition recovery. These results indicate that Rank-TS is particularly useful for prioritizing reaction conditions within a fixed-substrate combination under small-data conditions, and that its relative performance depends on how the chemical search space and ranking task are defined.