Reimagining cotton zones in India: a diagnostic framework for targeted interventions

Abstract Background India is one of the leading cotton producers, with more than 11 million hectares of cotton acreage worldwide. Despite this, productivity (461 kg·hm −2 ) has remained volatile and far below the global average, shaped by biotic and abiotic stresses, policy shifts, and technological interventions. This study is a unique effort to understand spatial variations in area, production, and yield across all major districts of India’s North, Central, and South Cotton Zones, which is vital for designing targeted interventions to enhance productivity and competitiveness. Results The study examined 211 cotton-growing districts across the Cotton Cultivation Zones (CCZs) from 2013–2014 to 2023–2024. The Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) was calculated using log-transformed area, production, and yield values, wherein the slope of the regression line was used to estimate annual growth rates. The analysis revealed an uneven growth trend in area, production, and yield across the zones. Certain districts of the Central Zone exhibited stable expansion and productivity acceleration, while some districts in the Northern Zone showed stagnation or negative growth, which might be due to climatic variability and pest incidence. Further, the districts have been mapped in four quadrants based on performance in both horizontal (acreage under cotton) and vertical (cotton yield) dimensions, such as High Area-High Yield (HA-HY), High Area-Low Yield (HA-LY), Low Area-High Yield (LA-HY), and Low Area-Low Yield (LA-LY), highlighting spatial disparities and identifying clusters requiring differentiated policy interventions. Conclusions The findings revealed substantial variations in cotton performance across the CCZs, necessitating zone-specific and cluster-based strategies. High-performing districts require optimization through advanced technologies and best management practices, whereas targeted interventions, a comprehensive approach, or a dual strategy that includes horizontal and vertical interventions are recommended for underperforming districts. The proposed diagnostic framework provided actionable insights for policymakers to enhance cotton productivity, bridge yield gaps, and strengthen India’s position in the global cotton sector. The analysis indicated that productivity gains are closely associated with improved input and technological adoption, irrigation access, and agronomic practices.