The Ledger Is Not Enough: Counts, Memory and Observable Content in a Finite Record Framework

Can an exact account of recorded events also determine what happens next? We examine this question in a finite quantum model with 48 preparations and an apparatus with ten distinguishable outcomes. Two reversible evolution rules reproduce exactly the same first-use specification but predict different results when the apparatus is used again. A separate example fixes one evolution rule: two possible histories then have identical counts of reads, commits and service events, yet different probabilities for the next outcome. Counts alone are therefore insufficient for prediction in this model. What remains visible depends on the observation. At eight preparations, even the complete individual-read distributions agree between the two rules, while correlations between the reads distinguish them. We classify two explicitly specified families of observations and determine exact ranges for the simpler family, showing both how distinctions are lost and how they can survive. The results separate event accounting, the choice of evolution, retained memory and the conversion of records into measured responses. They are conditional finite-model results, not a derivation of a physical dynamics or a measured coupling. The contribution is a set of exact counterexamples and classifications, rather than new principles of quantum theory. Exact computations and explicit proofs identify the additional response, weighting and sampling choices that a predictive physical interpretation must supply. Version 0.2 incorporates corrections following an author-requested preprint review. The deposit supplies the PDF, editable LaTeX with three TikZ figures, bibliography, exact fixture data for 96 two-read processes over 48 preparations, and a portable Python/SymPy verifier. The revised verifier passes 2,926 exact assertions. These are conditional finite-model results; no physical law, bridge, weighting or sampling measure is selected. The unchanged historical audit sources are available in a separately linked companion archive. Frozen audit sources and INT99 result dossier: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22541080.