Dimensional Collapse and Anomalous Scaling in Multi-Asset Financial Markets: Real-Time Early Warning via Topological Phase Space Manifolds

Manuscript v2 (September 2026) of Paper 4 in the author’s econophysics / quantitative-finance series. This deposit archives the full preprint PDF, LaTeX source, embedded TikZ figures, and licensing files for a dual-reading phase-space framework built on the information functional I(T, D) = A − p·log₂(T) + ½·log₂(D) with master exponent p = 2H + 1. The same coordinates (p, D_eff) are used in two complementary ways: (1) a systemic early-warning reading when p rises toward the Chirikov numerical landmark (~2.34) and the covariance participation-ratio dimension D_eff collapses; (2) a market-health / all-clear reading when D_eff stays elevated (~5) and p remains moderate (~2.22), indicating a diversified return manifold. Empirical case study: 40 leading S&P 500 stocks across Technology, Financials, Energy, and Health Care (Yahoo Finance), contrasting calm 2019 (250 trading days) with the Feb–Mar 2020 liquidity crash (49 trading days). Headline contrast: H 0.609→0.680, p 2.218→2.360, D_eff 5.09→1.83 (−64%). Builds on the methodological release Pirolo (2026a), doi:10.5281/zenodo.22287190. Related companion (shared projective–informational lineage, different domain): Projective-Relational KV-Cache, doi:10.5281/zenodo.22326711. License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (manuscript text and figures). PolyForm Noncommercial License 1.0.0 (all algorithms and code). Author: Andrés Sebastián Pirolo (ORCID 0009-0004-3899-1222). **Keywords** econophysics; Hurst exponent; dimensional collapse; participation ratio; covariance spectrum; early-warning signals; market-health indicator; anomalous diffusion; multi-asset markets; Chirikov map; random matrix theory; topological phase space; systemic risk; COVID-19 crash

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22349928
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
preprint
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preprint

Dimensional Collapse and Anomalous Scaling in Multi-Asset Financial Markets: Real-Time Early Warning via Topological Phase Space Manifolds

Andres Sebaatian Pirolo
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
preprint

Dimensional Collapse and Anomalous Scaling in Multi-Asset Financial Markets: Real-Time Early Warning via Topological Phase Space Manifolds

Andres Sebaatian Pirolo
preprint en

Abstract

Manuscript v2 (September 2026) of Paper 4 in the author’s econophysics / quantitative-finance series. This deposit archives the full preprint PDF, LaTeX source, embedded TikZ figures, and licensing files for a dual-reading phase-space framework built on the information functional I(T, D) = A − p·log₂(T) + ½·log₂(D) with master exponent p = 2H + 1. The same coordinates (p, D_eff) are used in two complementary ways: (1) a systemic early-warning reading when p rises toward the Chirikov numerical landmark (~2.34) and the covariance participation-ratio dimension D_eff collapses; (2) a market-health / all-clear reading when D_eff stays elevated (~5) and p remains moderate (~2.22), indicating a diversified return manifold. Empirical case study: 40 leading S&P 500 stocks across Technology, Financials, Energy, and Health Care (Yahoo Finance), contrasting calm 2019 (250 trading days) with the Feb–Mar 2020 liquidity crash (49 trading days). Headline contrast: H 0.609→0.680, p 2.218→2.360, D_eff 5.09→1.83 (−64%). Builds on the methodological release Pirolo (2026a), doi:10.5281/zenodo.22287190. Related companion (shared projective–informational lineage, different domain): Projective-Relational KV-Cache, doi:10.5281/zenodo.22326711. License: CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 (manuscript text and figures). PolyForm Noncommercial License 1.0.0 (all algorithms and code). Author: Andrés Sebastián Pirolo (ORCID 0009-0004-3899-1222). **Keywords** econophysics; Hurst exponent; dimensional collapse; participation ratio; covariance spectrum; early-warning signals; market-health indicator; anomalous diffusion; multi-asset markets; Chirikov map; random matrix theory; topological phase space; systemic risk; COVID-19 crash

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
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Dimensional Collapse and Anomalous Scaling in Multi-Asset Financial Markets: Real-Time Early Warning via Topological Phase Space Manifolds — Andres Sebaatian Pirolo · Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research) (2026) | TGRS Research Map | TGRS