The Paradox of Apparent Decline: A Two-Cohort CausalComparative Analysis of Alternative Learning System (ALS) Accreditation and Equivalency (A&E) Examination Outcomes Before and After the Removal of the Conditional Passer Policy

ABSTRACT: In 2025, the Alternative Learning System (ALS) Accreditation and Equivalency (A&E) examination returned with a new category called conditional passer (50 – 59%) with a remediation pathway after the examination was taken, and in 2026, this category was dropped and the standard was changed to pass/fail. The percentage of successful Schools Division Office (SDO) Makati City seemed to have dropped from 62.91% in 2025 to 49.38% in 2026. This study examined whether the apparent decline was due to a decline in the learner's achievement or because of a measurement artifact of the policy change. The examination records of two cohorts (2025 = 426, 2026 = 403) of students were examined using a quantitative causal-comparative (ex post facto) design prepared through the same familiarization and mock testing strategy. The apparent decrease in the outright pass rate was not found to be significant when assessed by two-proportion z-tests, which found the increase from 40.61% to 49.38% to be significant (z = 2.54, p = .011, h = 0.18); the true decrease only became apparent when 2025 conditional passers were counted as successes. If the band had been maintained, the counterfactual reconstruction showed that about 77 more learners would have been eligible for the band, resulting in 68.39% eligibility, which is above the 2025 benchmark. The supposed drop is thus a policy construct. Empowerment of the division's two week enhancement program to be moved upstream, as a pre-examination intensive, and the policy changes of the trend reporting system. Keywords: Alternative Learning System, Accreditation and Equivalency examination, conditional passers, assessment policy, causal-comparative research