MODEL ADOPTION #1859: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% — E8 Intelligence Research

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter is a regime overlay, not an E8-geometry timing edge. It contradicts the model's core FADE polarity logic, which already encodes phase via rhythm nodes. Adding a quarterly macro filter would double-count phase and dilute the timing signal. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+6.2pp) is likely an artifact of removing 3-4 large losing trades in a 97-sample backtest — not a systematic edge. Net PnL would drop ~25-30% due to fewer trades, and average R per trade would not improve proportionally. Over 3-6 months, the filter would miss strong momentum shorts during prolonged distribution, degrading profit. RISK: Overfitting to a small sample; regime-dependence (if market stays distribution-heavy, filter blocks all shorts, killing the FADE edge); phase misclassification (Gods-Clock rhythm vs. quarterly calendar — mismatch causes false filters). TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 200-trade shadow replay o Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22325319
Primary Topic
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
Type
preprint
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MODEL ADOPTION #1859: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
preprint

MODEL ADOPTION #1859: REJECT — LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

DECISION: REJECT ELEMENT: No single rule survives — the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter is a regime overlay, not an E8-geometry timing edge. It contradicts the model's core FADE polarity logic, which already encodes phase via rhythm nodes. Adding a quarterly macro filter would double-count phase and dilute the timing signal. EXPECTED IMPACT: Win-rate gain (+6.2pp) is likely an artifact of removing 3-4 large losing trades in a 97-sample backtest — not a systematic edge. Net PnL would drop ~25-30% due to fewer trades, and average R per trade would not improve proportionally. Over 3-6 months, the filter would miss strong momentum shorts during prolonged distribution, degrading profit. RISK: Overfitting to a small sample; regime-dependence (if market stays distribution-heavy, filter blocks all shorts, killing the FADE edge); phase misclassification (Gods-Clock rhythm vs. quarterly calendar — mismatch causes false filters). TEST: Before any reconsideration, run a 200-trade shadow replay o Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Complex Systems and Time Series Analysis
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