AI adoption and disruptive technology innovation: a double machine learning perspective

This study examines how Artificial Intelligence Adoption (AIA) drives Disruptive Technology Innovation (DTI) in high-turbulence environments. Grounded in Dynamic Capabilities (DC) theory, we analyse how absorptive, innovation, and adaptive capabilities translate AIA into disruptive innovation outcomes. Using Double Machine Learning on a panel of 855 Chinese listed firms (2000–2023), we find that AIA significantly promotes DTI, though the effect is lagged and depends on cumulative capability-building. Dynamic capabilities, especially adaptive capability, primarily mediate this relationship, with effects varying by industry AI intensity. These findings position DC as the critical link between AI investment and disruptive outcomes, offering strategic guidance for managers and policymakers aiming to sustain innovation advantages.