From ‘Strategic agreement’ to ‘Gravely concerning’: New Zealand’s China policy in an era of rising Chinese power

For at least a decade, New Zealand’s relationship with China has been characterised by the confluence of burgeoning economic interdependence and increasing security concerns. In seeking to explain this trajectory, the existing academic literature has highlighted the concept of New Zealand as an ontological trading state, drawn on Marxist theory, or adopted either a geopolitical realist, or a neoclassical realist explanation. This article contributes to the literature by advancing an alternative structural realist understanding of New Zealand’s China policy, highlighting the impact of Chinese power projection in the South Pacific region on New Zealand’s security. The article discusses a series of Chinese power projection initiatives in the South Pacific from 2020–2026 that have been viewed unfavourably by Wellington. These include the deployment of economic coercion against Australia from 2020–2023; military exercises in the Tasman Sea in 2025 and missile tests in 2024 and 2026; and attempts to alter regional diplomatic alignments through intervention in New Zealand’s AUKUS policy discourse from 2021–2024; the Cook Islands from 2024–2026, and the Solomon Islands in 2022.