Climate extremes are associated with crime dynamics in China

While the societal implications of climate extremes have received considerable attention, the specific associations with crime dynamics remain unclear. Leveraging a unique nationwide crime panel dataset (over 8.6 million) parsed via large-scale textual analysis, we capture detailed offender- and case-level attributes and examine the correlation between climate extremes and crime dynamics across China’s prefecture-level cities. We reveal that temperature anomalies, droughts, and extreme heat events are consistently associated with increases in reported crimes. Property crimes showing stronger associations than violent crimes, suggesting these associations may reflect disruptions in economic and social resource structures. These associations are stronger among rural migrants, farmers, and young males in low-income areas, providing differentiated sensitivities across groups. Potential policy responses may include targeted measures that strengthen mental health support, economic inclusion, ecological sustainability, and local governance. Our findings highlight the complex interplay between climate extremes and crime dynamics, offering policy guidance across climate-vulnerable developing regions. Temperature anomalies, droughts, and extreme heat are linked to higher reported crime, particularly property crime, according to a study using panel regression analysis of more than 8.6 million court records from Chinese cities.