A rocket debris impact threat assessment method incorporating value distribution of ground avoidance zones
{"With":[0],"increasing":[1],"launch":[2,173],"frequency":[3],"in":[4,44,103],"China,":[5],"rocket":[6],"debris":[7,62],"impact":[8,45,63,78,119],"threats":[9],"have":[10],"become":[11],"significant.Traditional":[12],"trajectory":[13,86],"methods":[14],"often":[15],"neglect":[16],"nonlinear":[17],"stochastic":[18,56,85,152],"factors":[19],"and":[20,55,88,105,154,175],"spatial":[21],"heterogeneity":[22],"of":[23],"population":[24,90,155],"activities,":[25],"leading":[26],"to":[27,33,40,76,171],"risk":[28,98,134,162,165],"assessment":[29,38,130],"deviations.This":[30],"study":[31],"aims":[32],"develop":[34],"a":[35,71,93,122,158,167],"comprehensive":[36,164],"threat":[37],"framework":[39,83,144],"enhance":[41],"statistical":[42],"confidence":[43],"prediction.Employing":[46],"Monte":[47,147],"Carlo":[48,148],"simulations":[49],"incorporating":[50],"mass":[51],"deviations,":[52],"engine":[53],"parameters,":[54],"wind":[57],"fields,":[58],"we":[59,107],"modeled":[60],"first-stage":[61],"points.A":[64],"bivariate":[65],"normal":[66,125],"distribution":[67,126],"characterization":[68],"constrained":[69],"by":[70],"99%confidence":[72],"ellipse":[73],"is":[74],"established":[75],"describe":[77],"point":[79],"dispersion.The":[80],"proposed":[81,142],"data-driven":[82,143],"integrates":[84,146],"simulation":[87,149],"fine-grained":[89],"data,":[91,156],"providing":[92,157],"quantitative":[94,159],"approach":[95],"for":[96,161],"ground":[97,109],"evaluation.Utilizing":[99],"high-resolution":[100],"WorldPop":[101],"data":[102],"China":[104],"a\\"severity\\"index,":[106],"optimized":[108],"avoidance":[110],"zone":[111],"polygons":[112],"via":[113],"boundary":[114],"merging":[115],"algorithms.Results":[116],"demonstrate":[117],"that":[118,132],"points":[120],"exhibit":[121],"distinct":[123],"two-dimensional":[124],"under":[127],"random":[128],"couplings.Risk":[129],"reveals":[131],"cumulative":[133],"values":[135],"increase":[136],"significantly":[137],"when":[138],"intersecting":[139],"high-density":[140],"areas.The":[141],"effectively":[145],"with":[150],"multi-source":[151],"disturbances":[153],"method":[160],"evaluation.The":[163],"value(R)offers":[166],"single,":[168],"actionable":[169],"metric":[170],"optimize":[172],"operations":[174],"mitigate":[176],"casualties.":[177]}
Authors
- He Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4078-7939)
- Yu Wang (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0764-1332)
- Gang Lei (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7872-4784)
- Shaopeng Li
Institutions
- PLA Rocket Force University of Engineering (CN)
Publication Details
- Journal
- Scientific Reports
- Published
- 2026-09-05
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-026-70083-7
- Primary Topic
- Risk and Safety Analysis
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 0.00