LAB #1859 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 38.1% ( — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Quarterly phase = DISTRIBUTION — improves win rate from 32.0% to 38.1% (+6.2pp, n=97) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the DISTRIBUTION-phase filter would have blocked the two XAUUSD SHORTs (both losses) and the EURJPY SHORT (win), plus the AUDUSD SHORT (loss). That removes 1 win and 3 losses from the 10-trade window, shifting the live record from 4W/6L (40%) to 3W/3L (50%) — a modest improvement in win rate but a net PnL gain of +2 losses avoided. The GBPUSD SHORT (open) and EURUSD SHORT (open) would remain, so the filter does not eliminate all drawdown risk. Expected delta: +~2.5% win rate and +~1.5R on this specific window, but the sample is too small to be meaningful. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3-6 months, this filter would likely reduce trade frequency by ~25-30% (distribution phases are less common than accumulation/markup). The backtest gain (+6.2pp) suggests it removes low-quality counter-trend Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com