Determinants of socioeconomic status and community well-being among vulnerable groups in post-conflict Tigray, Ethiopia

Abstract This study examines the determinants of socioeconomic status (SES) and their implications for the well-being of structurally vulnerable groups in post-conflict Tigray, Ethiopia, following the 2020–2022 armed conflict. Grounded in a multidimensional SES framework encompassing occupation, livelihood, health, and education, the study adopts a cross-sectional explanatory mixed-methods design. Quantitative data were collected from 590 respondents using multistage sampling with proportional stratification across six severely affected areas. In addition, qualitative data were obtained from 24 key informant interviews, 24 in-depth interviews, and 12 focus group discussions, and were analyzed thematically to support interpretation of statistical findings. Composite SES indices and multiple linear regression were used to identify key predictors of post-conflict socioeconomic outcomes. The results indicate that vulnerability category is the most significant predictor of SES, surpassing the explanatory contribution of demographic factors such as age, sex, and location. Persons with physical disabilities experience the lowest SES outcomes, reflecting long-standing exclusion and mobility constraints. Orphans exhibit mixed outcomes, with partial health improvements linked to humanitarian assistance but declining livelihoods due to household disruption. Older adults face persistent disadvantages associated with cumulative life-course deprivation, while destitute female-headed households show moderate but fragile resilience supported by informal livelihoods and social networks. From a capability-oriented perspective, the findings demonstrate that entrenched structural constraints continue to shape post-conflict inequalities in well-being. The study underscores the importance of targeted, capability-enhancing recovery strategies to improve socioeconomic security and promote inclusive recovery in conflict-affected settings.