Do electoral polls explain the winner–loser gap in political trust? A panel study on polls, election results, and political trust in Belgium

There is an ongoing debate on whether elections boost levels of political trust across the board or exclusively among the “winners” of the elections. The subsequent question is who exactly can be defined as the “winner” of a specific election. In the current study, we report on a panel survey that was conducted both before and after the 2024 general elections in Belgium. Results show that the experience of elections tends to boost levels of political trust, but this effect is stronger among the perceived winners of the elections. Most importantly, we find that this effect depends more strongly on a comparison with published public opinion poll results than on a comparison to the result of previous elections. We argue, therefore, that the winner–loser debate should take into account the effects of polls and mass media communication in shaping voters’ expectations when operationalising winning and losing.