From Luck to Pluck: The Politics of Australian Reform in an Uncertain Age—The 2026 Freebairn Lecture

ABSTRACT In the 2026 Freebairn lecture, I argue that Australia's prosperity can no longer be taken for granted. Despite strong foundations—stable institutions, natural resources and a diverse population — the country faces weakening productivity, unaffordable housing, stagnant wages and a deteriorating global order. I contend that reform failure is not primarily a failure of individual politicians, but of systemic incentives—short election cycles, hyperbolic discounting, information asymmetry and media dynamics that reward outrage over nuance. Drawing on my own tax reform work, I identify four lessons for driving change: (1) start with ‘why’; (2) build unusual coalitions; (3) meet people where they are; and (4) prioritise effectiveness over elegance. However, I also argue better strategies alone are insufficient. I am calling for three institutional reforms: (1) clear outcome goals with rigorous ex‐post evaluation of spending and policy; (2) transparency by default across government processes; and (3) regulatory reform—including deregulation KPIs, sunset clauses and independent regulatory cost assessments. Australia must choose its future deliberately rather than rely on luck. Becoming The Plucky Country requires institutional discipline, political courage and genuine optimism.