Pallas’s cat at the capital’s gates: persistence in a changing Mongolian landscape

Abstract Small carnivores, such as the Pallas’s cat ( Otocolobus manul ), play important ecological roles but remain poorly studied in many parts of their range, particularly in landscapes undergoing rapid human-induced change. We investigated Pallas’s cat occupancy and activity patterns in Bogd Khan Mountain, north-central Mongolia, in relation to habitat features, camera-detectable potential prey activity, and anthropogenic disturbance. Camera traps were deployed from April to August over three years. Because detections were sparse and the survey was not specifically designed for Pallas’s cats or their primary prey, we used occupancy-based framework and interpreted covariate relationships as tentative ecological associations. Mean predicted occupancy across site-year sampling units was 0.31 ± 0.08 SE, and detection probability varied among years. The best-supported model included a positive association between occupancy and the relative abundance index of Eurasian red squirrels ( Sciurus vulgaris ), a camera-detectable, forest-associated potential prey species. However, squirrel relative abundance may indicate opportunistic prey, broader prey availability, or favorable forest microhabitat. Although forest cover was not supported as a key occupancy covariate, most detections occurred at forested sites, indicating that Pallas’s cats occur within the heterogeneous forest-steppe landscape of the mountain. We detected no strong occupancy response to the anthropogenic disturbance covariates considered, including human activity, livestock activity, dog presence, and distance to urban areas. Activity records suggested moderate to high temporal overlap with squirrels, livestock, people, and free-ranging dogs. Our findings provide evidence of continued occurrence in a protected area facing increasing anthropogenic pressure and highlight the need for targeted monitoring.