When the Judge Becomes the Experiment

Large language models are increasingly used as evaluators, but a stable candidate output does not guarantee a stable measurement profile. I reconstruct several evaluator interventions over frozen outputs from one high-stakes decision-support evaluation program and treat the evaluator itself as the changing measurement object. Four completed managed-evaluator runs over the same 600 cases produced 2,400 judgments. Repeatability was high: 595 of 600 cases were four-of-four stable; Fleiss' kappa was 0.993 overall (0.991 PRIMARY; 1.000 HELDOUT). Yet repeatability did not determine agreement with the program's synthetic reference labels: 1,488 of 1,920 PRIMARY judgments (77.5%) and 400 of 480 HELDOUT judgments (83.3%) matched that non-human reference. In PRIMARY, 106 cases disagreed with the synthetic reference in all four runs and three additional cases mixed match and mismatch across runs; in HELDOUT, 20 cases disagreed with the synthetic reference identically in all four runs. Separate controlled interventions on frozen 20-case bodies exposed additional measurement sensitivities. Six balanced rating-option permutations reproduced the same four-case susceptible set across two jobs, although the exact arm-level change counts differed. A material evaluator-contract revision coincided with a shift of a byte-identical 20-case body from 7 of 20 to 20 of 20 CONFIRMED on repeated evaluations; several construct instructions changed together, so no single mechanism is identified. Finally, three runs with byte-identical five-metric definitions showed 13%, 14%, and 15% pairwise judgment drift across 20 cases, whereas a separate 20-case single-metric body showed no observed categorical changes across four jobs. These findings are presented as a bounded reproducibility case study, not a new general framework. In this program, repeatability, synthetic-reference agreement, evaluator-contract sensitivity, option-order sensitivity, and observed run-to-run drift diverged enough that compressing them into one score would conceal materially different measurement behavior.

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Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22340649
Primary Topic
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
Type
preprint
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When the Judge Becomes the Experiment

Logan Davis
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
preprint

When the Judge Becomes the Experiment

Logan Davis
preprint en

Abstract

Large language models are increasingly used as evaluators, but a stable candidate output does not guarantee a stable measurement profile. I reconstruct several evaluator interventions over frozen outputs from one high-stakes decision-support evaluation program and treat the evaluator itself as the changing measurement object. Four completed managed-evaluator runs over the same 600 cases produced 2,400 judgments. Repeatability was high: 595 of 600 cases were four-of-four stable; Fleiss' kappa was 0.993 overall (0.991 PRIMARY; 1.000 HELDOUT). Yet repeatability did not determine agreement with the program's synthetic reference labels: 1,488 of 1,920 PRIMARY judgments (77.5%) and 400 of 480 HELDOUT judgments (83.3%) matched that non-human reference. In PRIMARY, 106 cases disagreed with the synthetic reference in all four runs and three additional cases mixed match and mismatch across runs; in HELDOUT, 20 cases disagreed with the synthetic reference identically in all four runs. Separate controlled interventions on frozen 20-case bodies exposed additional measurement sensitivities. Six balanced rating-option permutations reproduced the same four-case susceptible set across two jobs, although the exact arm-level change counts differed. A material evaluator-contract revision coincided with a shift of a byte-identical 20-case body from 7 of 20 to 20 of 20 CONFIRMED on repeated evaluations; several construct instructions changed together, so no single mechanism is identified. Finally, three runs with byte-identical five-metric definitions showed 13%, 14%, and 15% pairwise judgment drift across 20 cases, whereas a separate 20-case single-metric body showed no observed categorical changes across four jobs. These findings are presented as a bounded reproducibility case study, not a new general framework. In this program, repeatability, synthetic-reference agreement, evaluator-contract sensitivity, option-order sensitivity, and observed run-to-run drift diverged enough that compressing them into one score would conceal materially different measurement behavior.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Logan Regional Hospital (US)
Peace, Justice and strong institutions
Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI)
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