Utilising urban energy structure as a carbon management strategy for carbon emissions mitigation and climate neutrality

Abstract Achieving urban carbon neutrality is critical to mitigating global warming and demands transformative regulation of carbon flows within urban energy systems. This study constructs an energy structure influencing factors (ESIF) evaluation system for urban energy structure, using improved principal component analysis (IPCA), to explore the factors influencing energy structure and carbon emissions within urban carbon cycles. Based on historical data spanning 2003 to 2023, this paper selects Suzhou, Wuxi and Nanjing, three homogeneous energy-reliant riverine cities in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), to develop an ESIF-linked carbon emissions prediction model for the carbon trajectories from 2024 to 2060. The results reveal that dependence on non-renewable energy sources and certain socioeconomic factors, such as the urbanisation rate, hinder the development of the energy structure. Multi-scenario forecasts show that accelerated growth in energy, social, and economic indicators delays the carbon peak and raises peak emissions. All three cities will reach carbon peaks no later than 2030 under Scenarios 1–3, with peak emissions ranging from 195.20 to 255.90 megatonnes. While Scenarios 1–4 enable carbon neutrality by 2060, the high-growth Scenario 5 precludes this target. This research offers targeted low-carbon policy recommendations for homogeneous riverine cities, such as those in the YRD.