AN ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF GROWTH AND CHANGES IN CROPPING PATTERN IN KARNATAKA

The study aims at explain the agriculture continues to be an important component of Karnataka’s economy and rural livelihood system. However, the cropping pattern of the state has undergone considerable changes because of variations in rainfall, irrigation, market prices, agricultural technology, government policies, changing consumer demand and the increasing commercialization of agriculture. The agricultural sector of the state recorded a 9.1% growth rate at constant prices, marking a significant recovery from the slowdown witnessed as per the Agricultural Department of India report (2025). This strong rebound was primarily supported by favourable monsoon conditions, the adoption of strategic technological interventions, improved agricultural practices, and increased government support and budgetary allocations for farmers. These factors collectively contributed to enhancing agricultural productivity, strengthening farm-sector resilience, and promoting overall growth in the state’s agricultural economy. The results indicate that the area under foodgrains increased from 73.38 lakh hectares in 2015–16 to 85.71 lakh hectares in 2024–25, while the area under pulses expanded substantially. The study reveals that Karnataka's cropping pattern experienced varied changes during 2015–16 to 2024–25. The exponential growth model indicates that cereals recorded a statistically significant positive growth of 1.70% per annum with an R² value of 0.667 and a p-value of 0.0039. Pulses showed almost negligible growth of 0.07%, while food grains registered a positive growth of 1.07% per annum. Oilseeds recorded a negative growth of −2.97%, indicating a decline in cultivated area. Cotton and sugarcane showed positive growth rates of 4.50% and 2.99%, respectively, although these trends were statistically insignificant at the 5% level. Overall, the results indicate that changes in Karnataka's cropping pattern have been uneven across crop groups. The hypothesis test confirms that the increase in cereal area is statistically significant, leading to rejection of the null hypothesis for cereals, whereas the null hypothesis is not rejected for pulses, food grains, oilseeds, cotton and sugarcane. The findings highlight a gradual shift in the state's crop composition and emphasize the importance of sustainable crop planning, irrigation management and diversification of agricultural production.