Vaccine hesitancy beyond borders: a multi-sited study of migrants and non-migrants across Germany and Turkey

Vaccination is a key protective measure against infectious diseases, yet vaccine hesitancy is rising, and coverage remains lower among migrant populations. Research largely attributes gaps to migrants’ characteristics, such as higher religiosity, overlooking broader mechanisms. We investigate the influence of the migration experience and broader determinants of hesitancy in the general population, through a multi-sited design comparing Turkish migrants and their descendants with non-migrants in Turkey and Germany. We collected data through an online survey recruiting participants via targeted Facebook advertisements (N = 1,311), asking about determinants of vaccine hesitancy, including science populism and institutional trust. We found that Turkish migrants and their descendants exhibited similar levels of hesitancy as German non-migrants and lower levels compared to Turkish non-migrants. Analyses by migrant generation and time since arrival suggest that this is driven more by selectivity than assimilation, though our cross-sectional analyses preclude a definitive test. Across all groups, vaccine attitudes are strongly shaped by science populism and institutional trust, while religiosity plays a smaller role. Group differences in these variables are associated with a substantial share of gaps in vaccine hesitancy. Overall, vaccine hesitancy appears to be a broader phenomenon rooted in anti-establishment populist sentiments spanning diverse populations, including migrants.