A prospective plant-level material flow analysis to assess systemic efficiency in the transition to hydrogen-based steelmaking

Abstract Decarbonizing steel production requires adopting low-carbon technologies and the efficient use of available resources, yet the effects of such a transition on the metabolism of the plant remain underexplored. This study applies a prospective plant-level Material Flow Analysis (MFA) to assess the transition from the conventional blast furnace–basic oxygen furnace route to hydrogen (H 2 )-based Direct Reduced Iron (DRI), Electric Arc Furnace (EAF) steelmaking, and hydrogen combustion in the rolling mill, in combination with resource efficiency interventions. Using a Swedish case study, we quantify material, energy, and carbon flows across the production chain under different decarbonization strategies. The results show up to 89% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in the H 2 -DRI-EAF pathway compared to the BF-BOF system, alongside up to an 18-fold increase in electricity use driven by hydrogen production and electrification. However, achieving emission reductions at this scale depends on the availability of low-carbon hydrogen, which is currently limited. Material efficiency measures generate cascading upstream effects through reduced EAF losses and downstream scrap generation, lowering hydrogen and electricity demand. Energy efficiency measures–especially improved electrolyser efficiency–primarily reduce electricity demand within the processes where they are implemented, but still contribute significantly to overall electricity savings. Combined, these resource efficiency measures reduce hydrogen demand by 10% and electricity demand by 20%. This work demonstrates how prospective plant-level MFA can support strategic planning and site-specific decarbonization roadmaps by capturing the systemic impacts of technology shifts and resource efficiency interventions.