Do coupled population, economic, and land use dynamics explain household energy transitions in Malawi?

In sub-Saharan Africa, population growth coupled with weak or missing markets for clean energy means that the absolute number of people relying on woodfuels for cooking is growing. Charcoal, which has distinctly different environmental and economic implications from firewood, has become one of the most consumed fuels in the region. However, among rural populations, the drivers and consequences of charcoal use remain under-studied. We examine rural woodfuel dynamics in Malawi, a majority rural country with high poverty, rapid population growth, lagging economic development, and abundant but rapidly declining forest resources. We examine how household energy transitions are influenced by concurrent demographic, economic, and land use changes. Using four waves of national household surveys and satellite-derived forest cover datasets, we investigate trends in household energy consumption, identify factors driving rural household fuel choices, and characterize geographic patterns of forest cover loss during 2004–2020. During this time, the share of rural households using charcoal grew from 3.9% to 13.4%. Rural households that are smaller, headed by younger individuals, and are asset-rich but land-poor had greater odds of using charcoal compared to firewood, indicating that rural livelihood dynamics have important consequences for household energy transitions. Several protected areas have experienced > 20% forest cover loss since 2001, characterized by geographic patterns consistent with unsanctioned woodfuel extraction. These findings emphasize a renewed need for integrated natural resources, energy, and livelihoods management strategies. Our insights provide information for policy makers to better predict and understand the continued growth of charcoal’s popularity in Malawi and similar contexts.