Assessing port infrastructure criticality and vulnerability for climate adaptation planning: Insights from three European ports

Climate change is increasing the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, directly threatening critical port infrastructure and the stability of global supply chains. Effective adaptation planning requires systematic tools capable of identifying the most critical and climate-vulnerable infrastructure elements within port systems. The present study develops an integrated framework that jointly evaluates the operational criticality and climate vulnerability of port infrastructure, supporting decision-making in port adaptation planning. Criticality is assessed using Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA), applying the SMARTER approach with the Rank Order Centroid (ROC) technique for criteria weighting, considering five impact dimensions related to safety, operational continuity, as well as economic, social and environmental impacts. Vulnerability is evaluated based on the exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity of each infrastructure element to relevant climate hazards. The framework was applied to the ports of Seville, Dunkirk and Lisbon. The results identify energy infrastructure and emergency and resilience systems as the most critical assets across all three ports. Vulnerability varies among the case studies depending on local climatic conditions and the operational characteristics of the infrastructure. In Seville, the most vulnerable infrastructures are utilities and drainage systems, mainly due to flooding and sea-level rise. In Lisbon, access infrastructure and drainage systems show increased vulnerability to flooding and storm events, while in Dunkirk the highest vulnerability is observed in environmental protection systems. Overall, the proposed methodology enables the prioritization of port assets that require immediate adaptation interventions, thereby providing a comprehensive decision-support tool for port authorities.