LAB #1843 PROMISING: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+ — E8 Intelligence Research
IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: Phase distance TIGHT (<=2deg) — improves win rate from 32.0% to 36.4% (+4.4pp, n=412) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Applying the phase-distance filter (≤2°) would have excluded the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (entries at 4051.79 and 4066.35) if their phase distance exceeded 2°, and possibly the AUDUSD SHORT loss. Removing those two XAUUSD losses from the window (n=9 closed/rejected) would shift the record from 4W/4L/1open to 4W/2L/1open — a win-rate jump from ~50% to ~67% on closed trades. PnL delta is positive but modest, as XAUUSD losses likely outweighed the EURJPY/GBPUSD wins; expect roughly +1.5R to +2.5R improvement in this specific window. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, the +4.4pp win-rate gain (32%→36.4%) on n=412 suggests a real but fragile edge — likely filtering out low-quality entries near phase boundaries where noise dominates. Risk: the filter may also exclude high-volatility breakout trades Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com
Authors
- Andrew Stewart Caldin
Publication Details
- Journal
- Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
- Published
- 2026-09-05
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22324701
- Primary Topic
- Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
- Type
- preprint