The Prospect of Regional Peace in the Middle East: Managing Nuclear Rivalry between Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia

The Middle East is witnessing the emergence of a nuclear triangle involving Iran, Israel and Saudi Arabia. Iran's advancing nuclear programme, Israel's policy of opacity and Saudi Arabia's nuclear hedging create a security dilemma that threatens regional stability. While the 2015 JCPOA temporarily constrained Iran, its collapse exposed the limits of exclusionary agreement. Past literature has largely focused on deterrence, proliferation, and the risk of war. This study examines an under-explored dimension, how nuclear rivalry can be managed to preserve regional peace. Grounded in Neorealism and Neoliberal Institutionalism, Neorealism explains the structural drivers of proliferation, while Neoliberal Institutionalism shows how institutions can reduce uncertainty and enable cooperation. This study employs qualitative case study design and documentary analysis of UN, IAEA and policy documents. The findings suggest that 'managed rivalry' is feasible through a '3Ps Framework': Prevent escalation with crisis hotlines; Proceduralize trust via a Regional IAEA Forum; and pursue Phased Disarmament toward a Middle East Nuclear-Weapons-Free Zone. The study concludes that regional peace is possible through rules, transparency and inclusive institutions, not immediate disarmament. The study contributes to peace and conflict literature by shifting focus from deterrence to the management of nuclear rivalry.