Exponential growth and stabilization of Ebola cases in the DRC in 2026

Abstract WHO has declared the Ebola outbreak in 2026 an extraordinary event, which requires a coordinated international response. This epidemic has become the second-largest one after the Ebola outbreak in West Africa in 2013-2016. As of August 16, 2026, the accumulated number of Ebola cases in the DRC still demonstrated exponential growth, with the doubling time of 23.34 days and estimation 10,042 by September 8, 2026. A zero patient probably appeared on 29-30 October 2025. Fortunately, after August 16, 2026, the accumulated numbers of cases consistently fall below the theoretical estimate, demonstrating the stabilization of the epidemic and making the predictions for September 2026 too pessimistic. Daily and weekly rates of increase/decrease of the number of exposed persons are estimated.