Mapped Aquaculture Land-Cover Dynamics in Coastal Ecuador, 1985–2024: Registry Correspondence, Recent Transitions, and Climatic Context

Reliable aquaculture monitoring requires spatial, administrative, and environmental evidence to be integrated without treating these sources as equivalent. This study characterized mapped aquaculture land-cover dynamics in six coastal provinces of Ecuador from 1985 to 2024, assessed their 2023 correspondence with authorized or concessioned shrimp-farm area, quantified 2023–2024 land-cover transitions, and described climate exposure over a fixed historical aquaculture footprint. Annual MapBiomas Ecuador Collection 3.0 classifications were aggregated by province, canton, and parish; MPCEIP records were harmonized with INEC administrative codes; and CHIRPS v3 precipitation and ERA5-Land temperature were summarized over the union of all pixels mapped as aquaculture at least once during the study period. Mapped class 31 area increased from 58,198.792 ha in 1985 to 138,200.970 ha in 2024, with a maximum of 153,516.642 ha in 2022. In 2023, mapped area represented 74.508% of 202,114.900 ha of authorized or concessioned area, with strong canton-level rank correspondence. Between 2023 and 2024, persistence reached 135,774.430 ha, gross loss 14,816.766 ha, gross gain 2426.130 ha, and net change −12,390.636 ha. Climate exposure was wettest in 1998 and warmest in 2023. Together, the results show that coastal aquaculture development cannot be inferred reliably from a single territorial measure: long-term mapped expansion, administrative extent, recent classification changes, and climate exposure describe complementary but non-equivalent dimensions of the system. This distinction provides a more defensible basis for interpreting aquaculture land-use change and for targeting territorial monitoring and administrative verification.