Energy Consumption, Economic Growth, and CO2 Emissions in Kazakhstan: Revisiting the Role of Renewable Energy

Understanding the relationship between economic growth, energy use, and environmental degradation remains a key challenge for resource-dependent economies undergoing energy transition. This study re-examines the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, renewable energy, and capital formation on CO2 emissions in Kazakhstan using annual data for 1992–2024. To account for structural changes and ensure robust inference, the analysis employs the Bai–Perron structural break test, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach, and alternative cointegration estimators including Fully Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS), Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS), and Canonical Cointegrating Regression (CCR). The results reveal a stable long-run relationship among the variables. Economic growth and energy consumption significantly increase CO2 emissions, indicating the persistence of a carbon-intensive growth pattern in Kazakhstan. The effect of renewable energy is not robust across estimation techniques and does not provide consistent evidence of an emissions-reducing impact. Capital formation also shows limited explanatory power for long-run environmental outcomes. Overall, the findings suggest that Kazakhstan has not yet achieved a decoupling between economic growth and environmental degradation. The study contributes to the literature by jointly incorporating structural breaks, multiple cointegration estimators, and an extended sample period within a country-specific framework. The results imply that expanding renewable energy capacity alone may be insufficient to improve environmental quality, highlighting the need for broader structural transformation and low-carbon development strategies.