Implementation Capacity of Local Early Warning Systems: The Need for Localism in the EW4All Initiative

Abstract The early warning system (EWS) localization agenda has been ignored in the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) initiative. To date, no studies have analyzed the implementation of local EWS through the lens of institutional capacities. The scientific innovation of this study lies in proposing and applying a new framework called Implementation Capacity of Local Early Warning Systems (ICLEWS). Using an institutional capacity approach that focuses on the technical-administrative and political-relational aspects, ICLEWS examines local EWS implementation across the four warning subsystems (risk knowledge, monitoring, communication, and preparedness). The innovative framework comprises seven dimensions to monitor EWS implementation at the local level: (1) human resources of local disaster risk management (DRM) agency; (2) financial resources of local DRM agency; (3) risk mapping; (4) weather and subseasonal forecast, and rainfall monitoring; (5) risk communication strategies; (6) social participation; and (7) local and regional EWS governance. Based on a 2025 national survey completed by 41% (2289) of municipalities in Brazil, the findings indicate a moderate positive association between technical-administrative and political-relational capacities ( τ b = 0.374). This result shows that higher scores in the technical-administrative dimension tend to co-occur with higher scores in the political-relational dimension among the municipalities analyzed, although the association is not strong. The social participation dimension was lower, suggesting that people-centered EWS remain incipient in many local contexts. There are also limitations in human resources and budget, access to subseasonal forecasts, capacity to combat misinformation on social media, promoting intermunicipal coordination, and formulating contingency plans to address single hazards (especially heatwaves) and multi-hazards.