A stochastic dual-channel clearance strategy for food waste prevention in perishable FMCG supply chains

About one third of all the food grown for people is lost or wasted every year. Fast-moving consumer goods with very short shelf lives lose a large share of this food at the distribution stage. Distributors face a hard choice because ordering too much turns good food into waste while ordering too little causes lost sales. This study builds and tests a dual-channel clearance framework that separates these two goals and keeps discounted stock away from full-price stock. A stochastic mixed-integer non-linear model solved in GAMS sets a Protection Level for the fresh channel and a Rockwell Arena simulation tests that policy under random customer arrivals using behaviour inputs from a survey of 217 shoppers in Dhaka. At a fixed audit point 72 h after production every unit above the Protection Level moves to a separate discounted Near-Food Channel. A constant markdown of 30 percent removed all distributor waste and turned a loss of 11300 BDT into a profit of 19426 BDT. A stepped markdown of 20 percent on Day 4 and 10 percent on Day 5 also removed all waste and raised profit to 20346 BDT. Service to full-price shoppers stayed at 100 percent under both markdown rules. A sensitivity study over behaviour demand and cost inputs kept profit positive in every case. These results allow the manufacturer to withdraw the wastage allowance that distributors normally receive. The rule needs only one timed check and a simple lookup table so it suits low-technology supply chains in emerging markets.