Climate Change and Country Food Security: Projected Future Impacts in the Western Canadian Arctic

The Canadian Arctic is warming faster than the global average, posing significant challenges for Inuit whose livelihoods are closely linked to the environment. Climate change exacerbates food insecurity in Inuit communities by impacting the availability, access, quality, utilization and long-term stability of country foods. Inuit observations indicate that changes in temperature, precipitation, wildlife, weather, and ice conditions impact harvesting opportunities, travel safety, and country food consumption. Focusing on the Inuvialuit Settlement Region (ISR), this study links documented climate change impacts on country food security with projected environmental conditions to assess potential future risks. An integrative synthesis of exposure-sensitivities reveals that environmental changes are interconnected, multidimensional, and compounded across the Inuit food system. Findings indicate that food access is expected to be the most affected food security dimension over the next 20 to 30 years, while food availability is also likely to decline as key species face ecological stress and shifting harvesting pressure. While Inuit communities have long adapted through sharing networks, opportunistic harvesting, and increased reliance on store-bought foods, shorter-term coping mechanisms may not fully address future risks. This retrospective study provides a regionally grounded assessment of underlying causes affecting long-term food security in the ISR to inform forward-looking strategies.