Route-Integrity Constraints for Inland-Vessel Speed Planning: Detecting and Limiting Segment-Level Burden Transfer

Inland-vessel speed reductions targeted at priority segments can reallocate a normalized burden proxy across a fixed corridor. We develop a route-integrity speed-planning model that accepts a plan only when it attains the priority target, preserves route-wide improvement, and caps the largest non-priority-segment increase. The kinematics distinguish speed over ground, along-route current, and speed through water; without voyage-matched current or speed-through-water observations, the cases use zero-current analytical references. We evaluate two AIS-derived cases: the 27-point Case A as a sparse stress test and Case B as the primary spatial case after WGS84 and ESA WorldCover alignment checks. Under the equal-time constraint, an unprotected 2% target induces local deterioration. With a 0.5% non-priority cap, Case B supports a certified maximum target of 0.999%; a 2% late-arrival allowance raises the certified maximum target to 11.912%. Direct search over 0.1-kn commands finds a feasible plan for Case B; however, none of 1000 sampled ±0.2-kn execution-error profiles remains feasible. The framework identifies model-internal proxy transfer rather than measured energy, emissions, or exposure effects.