Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency

Abstract Peatlands are the largest terrestrial stores of organic carbon, but drainage has turned them into substantial sources of CO 2 . While water level is widely recognized as the primary control of CO 2 emissions from peatlands, effective future management requires understanding its interaction with rising temperatures under a warming climate. Using 276 site-years of annual CO 2 flux observations across temperate and boreal peatlands, we apply explainable machine-learning to disentangle the combined effects of water table depths and temperature on ecosystem CO 2 exchange at annual scales. Across peatlands spanning diverse land-cover—including natural fens and bogs, croplands, grasslands, and extraction sites—CO 2 emissions exhibit a non-linear response to water table depth. Emissions decline when water tables are raised above 60-75 cm depth. Optimal mitigation requires water tables of 20 cm or higher. We find that deep water tables interact with temperatures to increase emissions at temperate sites. On a subset of 113 site-years of daily CO 2 flux data, we show that at warm temperatures, higher water tables suppress, whereas deeper water tables enhance temperature-driven CO 2 emissions from peatlands. We demonstrate that hydrology regulates the temperature sensitivity of peatland carbon release, revealing a key control on carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2026-09-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-026-77456-6
Primary Topic
Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency

Christian Brümmer, Ype van der Velde, Sébastien Gogo, Carsten Schaller et al.
Nature Communications
Peatlands and Wetlands Ecology
article

Drivers of northern peatland CO2 fluxes revisited: interacting water level-temperature dependency

Christian Brümmer, Ype van der Velde, Sébastien Gogo, Carsten Schaller, Carole Helfter, Chris Evans, Karen Yeung, Ross Morrison, June Skeeter, Ian B. Strachan, Mana Gharun, Adrien Jacotot, Kuno Kasak, Nicolas Behrens, Guillaume Bertrand
article en

Abstract

Abstract Peatlands are the largest terrestrial stores of organic carbon, but drainage has turned them into substantial sources of CO 2 . While water level is widely recognized as the primary control of CO 2 emissions from peatlands, effective future management requires understanding its interaction with rising temperatures under a warming climate. Using 276 site-years of annual CO 2 flux observations across temperate and boreal peatlands, we apply explainable machine-learning to disentangle the combined effects of water table depths and temperature on ecosystem CO 2 exchange at annual scales. Across peatlands spanning diverse land-cover—including natural fens and bogs, croplands, grasslands, and extraction sites—CO 2 emissions exhibit a non-linear response to water table depth. Emissions decline when water tables are raised above 60-75 cm depth. Optimal mitigation requires water tables of 20 cm or higher. We find that deep water tables interact with temperatures to increase emissions at temperate sites. On a subset of 113 site-years of daily CO 2 flux data, we show that at warm temperatures, higher water tables suppress, whereas deeper water tables enhance temperature-driven CO 2 emissions from peatlands. We demonstrate that hydrology regulates the temperature sensitivity of peatland carbon release, revealing a key control on carbon–climate feedbacks under future warming.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 17(1)
Natural Resources Canada (CA), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), Queen's University (CA), University of Münster (DE), Federal Agency for Nature Conservation (DE), Ecosystèmes, Biodiversité, Evolution (FR), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Johann Heinrich von Thünen-Institut (DE), Institute of Landscape Ecology of the Slovak Academy of Sciences (SK), Laboratoire Chrono-Environnement (FR), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de la Réunion (RE), Université de Rennes (FR), University of Tartu (EE), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam (NL), University of California, Berkeley (US)
U.S. Department of Energy, European Commission, Eesti Teadusagentuur, Bundesministerium für Bildung und Forschung, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Westfälische Wilhelms-Universität Münster, Office of Science, Natural Environment Research Council, Interreg
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