Bidirectional Influence of the Computational Modelling and Real-World: Theorising Coevolution of Agent-Based Models for Studying Energy Communities

This study hypothesises and explores the co-evolutionary patterns and potentially the bidirectional influence between computational modelling exercises and real-world practices by employing the elements of the co-evolutionary framework (i.e., technologies, formal institutions, user practices, business strategies and ecosystems) and focusing on the literature on the application of agent-based modelling and simulation (ABMS) for studying community energy systems (CESs). The study shows that modelling exercises are becoming more complex, including more elements and conditions from the real world. The results confirmed the co-evolutionary patterns and demonstrated that the evolution of technologies (e.g., from solar PV alone to multiple energy sources) and business strategies (e.g., peer-to-peer, real-time pricing and day-ahead market) is more significant than the other three elements. On the other hand, formal institutions and ecosystem elements received limited attention. The evolution of models of collective energy security is analysed as an example, further highlighting the evolution of technologies element. Given the detailed analysis of models developed to study CESs and the evolution of modelling practices, this study sheds light on the aspects and complexities that future studies should consider. The study and its findings contribute to strengthening modelling practices in the energy transition and, more broadly, in sustainability.