When governments shift, do policies follow?Tracing policy change in Brazil’s land use regulatory framework

Land degradation and native vegetation loss in Brazil have persisted despite a comprehensive land use regulatory framework. This study examines how Brazilian federal land use policies changed between 2000 and 2025 and how these changes relate to institutional government change. Drawing on historical institutionalism, qualitative policy analysis, and process tracing, the research analyzes 239 laws and decrees across eight environmental and agricultural policies over eight administrations. The findings show that policy goals persisted across governments, while rules, instruments, budgets, and institutional capacities shifted. Two critical junctures, Dilma Rousseff’s impeachment in 2015 and the start of Bolsonaro’s presidency in 2019, coincided with environmental policy replacement, institutional dismantling, and weakened enforcement. However, prior layering and conversion of environmental policies created resilience, enabling institutional recovery under Lula’s third administration beginning in 2023. Agricultural policies exhibited greater stability, reflecting entrenched economic and political coalitions. Linking policy change processes to vegetation loss data shows that periods of weakened implementation were associated with increased vegetation loss, whereas restored institutional coordination was associated with reduced deforestation. Targeted strategies, especially the Action Plans for the Prevention and Control of Deforestation, were highly effective when supported by institutional capacity. This study calls for greater integration between agricultural and environmental policies, using cross-compliant financial and technical instruments to combat land use change driving vegetation loss, matched with continued whole-territory monitoring and targeted actions across biomes. The findings underscore the critical role of stable interministerial coordination and long-term institutional foundations in sustaining conservation policy amid political volatility.