Energy return does not by itself certify industrial closure

Energy-return metrics are widely used to compare energy technologies, but a favourable value does not show whether the same industrial plan restores every function required for another productive cycle. This preprint formalizes common-plan functional restitution through the Physical Energy Restitution Ratio (PERR). Under a fixed closed catalogue, PERR≥1 is equivalent to one-generation coverage, and a scalar can certify that decision only when equal scalar values cannot correspond to opposite outcomes. A controlled pair has identical horizon, EROI=2 and aggregate electrical exergy but opposite PERR/COVER decisions. A published photovoltaic representation provides an external non-identifiability test under TOPCon metallization refinement. An analytic energy-coordinate bound excludes a frozen four-route power-to-liquid/direct-air-capture class, and deterministic certificates exclude the complete declared Almería and Pelham 16-plan families and the declared Salt Creek family under favourable accounting. One-generation coverage is distinguished from indefinite recurrence. This record is a preprint and has not undergone peer review. It contains the scientific manuscript and public supplementary material. No source code or general-purpose implementation is included in this public release.

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22302658
Primary Topic
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
Type
preprint
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preprint

Energy return does not by itself certify industrial closure

Juan Navalón Fernández
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
preprint

Energy return does not by itself certify industrial closure

Juan Navalón Fernández
preprint en

Abstract

Energy-return metrics are widely used to compare energy technologies, but a favourable value does not show whether the same industrial plan restores every function required for another productive cycle. This preprint formalizes common-plan functional restitution through the Physical Energy Restitution Ratio (PERR). Under a fixed closed catalogue, PERR≥1 is equivalent to one-generation coverage, and a scalar can certify that decision only when equal scalar values cannot correspond to opposite outcomes. A controlled pair has identical horizon, EROI=2 and aggregate electrical exergy but opposite PERR/COVER decisions. A published photovoltaic representation provides an external non-identifiability test under TOPCon metallization refinement. An analytic energy-coordinate bound excludes a frozen four-route power-to-liquid/direct-air-capture class, and deterministic certificates exclude the complete declared Almería and Pelham 16-plan families and the declared Salt Creek family under favourable accounting. One-generation coverage is distinguished from indefinite recurrence. This record is a preprint and has not undergone peer review. It contains the scientific manuscript and public supplementary material. No source code or general-purpose implementation is included in this public release.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Affordable and clean energy
Integrated Energy Systems Optimization
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