Global rapid assessment of earthquake rupture and shaking

Rapid constraints on earthquake rupture geometry and shaking intensity are critical for early hazard assessment, but remain difficult to obtain in the first tens of minutes after large earthquakes, particularly in regions with sparse seismic instrumentation. Here we present a globally scalable framework that combines real-time dense-array seismic observations, high-frequency (0.5–10 Hz) multi-array back-projection, known fault geometries, global site-condition models (Vs30), and empirical ground-motion prediction equations to derive rupture extent and physically consistent seismic-intensity fields within ~30 min of origin time. Applications to the 2025 Mw 7.7 Myanmar strike-slip earthquake and a separate Mw 8.8 Kamchatka megathrust event recover rupture dimensions across contrasting tectonic settings that are consistent with InSAR measurements, early aftershock distributions, and macroseismic observations typically available only days later. Because the framework relies only on existing global seismic networks, it enables rapid impact characterization without dense near-source observations. By bridging rapid rupture imaging and physics-informed shaking assessment, this framework represents a methodological advance in global earthquake disaster science, enabling actionable impact estimates within the critical early response window and offering a scalable pathway to reduce seismic losses across vulnerable and under-instrumented regions worldwide.