Drought Contagion and Heat Substitution: Spatial Spillover Effects of Compound Climate Extremes on Sustainable Tourism

Sustainable tourism is increasingly threatened by compound climate extremes, but how these hazards propagate through destination networks is poorly understood. This study quantifies the direct and cross-boundary spillover effects of compound climate extremes on tourism demand in Sichuan Province, China, by integrating 75 years of high-resolution ERA5 reanalysis data with an 11-year municipal panel dataset (2014–2024, N = 21). Employing a gravity center migration model and a two-way fixed-effects spatial econometric model, we find that prolonged droughts impose a significant direct local damage on tourism, while wet-hot compound events generate a substantial positive spatial spillover, indicating that tourists spatially substitute toward cooler neighboring destinations rather than cancelling travel. By contrast, drought and dry-hot events produce negative spillovers consistent with regional brand contagion. These contrasting propagation mechanisms (spatial substitution versus contagion) depend fundamentally on event type and are invisible to conventional non-spatial models. Our findings directly inform global sustainable development objectives related to climate action and economic growth, offering an evidence base for spatially coordinated, event-specific climate adaptation strategies in mountain tourism networks facing accelerating climate risks.