Population dynamics of prehistoric East Asia (10−2 ka BP) and relationship with climatic and subsistence changes

This study examines population dynamics, climatic changes, and subsistence transitions in prehistoric East Asia (10–2 ka BP; corresponding to modern China, South Korea and Japan) using summed probability distributions (SPDs) of radiocarbon dates (n = 25189) and settlement data from the Atlas of Chinese Cultural Relics (n = 51432). Subsistence patterns were analysed through human isotopic data (n = 4111). The results reveal significant regional disparities in population trends. The initial population rise in East Asia was closely tied to the development of agriculture in core regions such as the Yellow and Yangtze River basins, where gradual demographic growth was supported by endogenous crop domestication and favourable climatic conditions. In contrast, agriculturally marginal zones experienced later and more rapid population increases driven by the diffusion of farming practices under deteriorating environmental conditions. Japan followed a distinct trajectory, where population growth during the Middle Jomon period was driven by intensifying resource exploitation and increasing social complexity rather than full-scale agriculture. Three phases of population decline were identified: (1) at 5.1 ka BP, linked to the decline of the Hongshan and Yangshao cultures; (2) a broader decline between 4.3 and 4.0 ka BP, affecting multiple regions, including the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Upper Yangtze, Southeast China, and East Japan; and (3) a localized decline in the Hexi Corridor and Southwest China began at around 3.8–3.6 ka BP. Population declines in East Asia around 4.2 ka BP were asynchronous across regions and varied widely in timing and magnitude, indicating that the 4.2 ka rapid climate change event had uneven regional impacts. Rather than supporting a linear narrative of climate-driven subsistence collapse, our synthesis finds limited evidence for widespread agricultural failure: most regions responded through adaptive farming, technological innovation, and institutional reorganisation, pointing to transformative resilience through reconfiguration rather than collapse—though in some areas, demographic changes still occurred close in time to climatic change.