LAB #1827 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ LONDON_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to — E8 Intelligence Research

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ LONDON_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to 71.4% (+39.5pp, n=7) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, this filter would have blocked the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries at 4051.79 and 4066.35) and the AUDUSD SHORT loss (rizzy5m at 0.69415) — all three occurred outside London open or lacked the 6-conf threshold. It would also have blocked the EURJPY SHORT win (rizzy5m at 184.144, 10:35 London time — likely outside the strict open window) and the EURJPY LONG win (rizzy5m at 187.042, 18:00 — clearly outside). Net effect: 3 losses removed, 2 wins removed → win rate in this window would drop from 3/8 (37.5%) to 1/3 (33.3%), and PnL would likely improve slightly if the removed losses exceed the removed wins in magnitude — but the sample is too small to claim a real edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would drastically reduce trade fre Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Authors

Publication Details

Journal
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Published
2026-09-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22294688
Primary Topic
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
Type
preprint
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LAB #1827 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ LONDON_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
preprint

LAB #1827 NEUTRAL: LEDGER BENCH: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ LONDON_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to — E8 Intelligence Research

Andrew Stewart Caldin
preprint en

Abstract

IDEA: Adjustment made to the live model — verify against the backtests: Apply filter: USDCHF SHORT @ LONDON_OPEN with 6 conf — improves win rate from 31.9% to 71.4% (+39.5pp, n=7) SAME-WINDOW EFFECT: Over the current live window, this filter would have blocked the two XAUUSD SHORT losses (rizzy5m entries at 4051.79 and 4066.35) and the AUDUSD SHORT loss (rizzy5m at 0.69415) — all three occurred outside London open or lacked the 6-conf threshold. It would also have blocked the EURJPY SHORT win (rizzy5m at 184.144, 10:35 London time — likely outside the strict open window) and the EURJPY LONG win (rizzy5m at 187.042, 18:00 — clearly outside). Net effect: 3 losses removed, 2 wins removed → win rate in this window would drop from 3/8 (37.5%) to 1/3 (33.3%), and PnL would likely improve slightly if the removed losses exceed the removed wins in magnitude — but the sample is too small to claim a real edge. OVER-TIME PROJECTION: Over 3–6 months, this filter would drastically reduce trade fre Author: Andrew Stewart Caldin, Independent Researcher, UK. Part of the E8 Intelligence Research series. Platform: e8intelligence.com

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research)
Decent work and economic growth
Intelligence, Security, War Strategy
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