Integrated crop residue return, film mulching, and irrigation enhance climate resilience of maize production and soil carbon storage in cold regions

Climate change is expected to intensify changes in soil freeze–thaw processes, thereby affecting water availability and agricultural productivity. However, the mechanistic links among climate-induced changes in seasonal freeze–thaw conditions, maize productivity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) storage remain poorly understood. Moreover, the combined adaptation potential of residue return, film mulching, and optimized irrigation has not been systematically evaluated. The calibrated Soil-Plant-Atmosphere Continuum System model was applied to investigate the responses of maize production and SOC dynamics to projected climatic conditions during 2021–2060 (near future) and 2061–2100 (far future) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 2–4.5 (SSP245) and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5 (SSP585), relative to the baseline period. Fifteen management combinations integrating crop residue return, film mulching, and irrigation regimes were evaluated. Under climate warming, maize yield under local management increased by 11.71% and 15.96% in the near future relative to the baseline period (1981–2020) under the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. By the end of the century, maize production was projected to decline by 17.17% under SSP245 and 20.55% under SSP585 relative to the baseline period. SOC storage exhibited a persistent reduction, decreasing by 11.95%–20.44% in the near future by 20.05%–39.02% in the far future. Among the adaptation strategies, the integrated treatment combining crop residue return, film mulching, and optimized irrigation (CRFMI4) exhibited the greatest potential for climate adaptation. Compared with local management, CRFMI4 increased average maize yield by 27.13% and 19.91% in the near and far future periods, respectively. CRFMI4 mitigated SOC losses in the near future and promoted SOC accumulation in the far future, increasing SOC storage by 16.38%. Future research should investigate the integration of CRFMI4 with climate-adaptive sowing dates and heat-tolerant cultivars to further strengthen the resilience of maize production systems under intensified late-century warming in cold agricultural regions.