Population Growth and Waste Generation Dynamics: Forecasting Evidence from Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Iraq (2016–2030)

Abstract Municipal solid waste forecasting is essential for infrastructure planning, budgeting, and environmentally sustainable urban management, particularly in rapidly growing cities with limited long historical records. This study investigates annual municipal solid waste generation in Sulaymaniyah Governorate, Iraq, using population and waste data for 2016–2025. The analysis integrates descriptive indicators, per-capita waste measures, population–waste regressions, structural diagnostics, and parsimonious forecasting benchmarks suitable for a ten-observation annual series. Population increased from 869,404 to 1,078,225 residents, while annual waste increased from 328,812 to 400,442 tons. Average waste generation was 378.49 kg per person annually, equivalent to 1.037 kg per person daily. Population and waste were strongly associated in levels, with Pearson’s r = 0.812. The log–log model estimated a population elasticity of 1.864, significant under Heteroskedasticity-Consistent standard error estimator 3(HC3) robust inference, although population changes did not significantly explain short-run waste changes. A structural shift around 2021 was also detected. Rolling-origin evaluation showed that simple benchmark forecasting outperformed more elaborate population-based alternatives for short-horizon prediction. The findings demonstrate that demographic growth is important for long-run waste capacity planning, but short-run fluctuations require additional socioeconomic, operational, and environmental predictors. The framework offers a transparent approach for data-scarce municipal forecasting and planning in comparable rapidly urbanizing settings worldwide contexts.