Emerging Hotspots of Cropland Expansion on Steeper Tropical Terrains Intensify Tropical Forest Carbon Loss

Abstract Tropical deforestation driven by agricultural expansion to meet growing food demand poses a rising threat to the global carbon cycle. While previous studies quantified agriculture‐related carbon losses, the role of cropland expansion remains poorly resolved, partly because widely used agricultural driver data sets are too coarse to detect fine‐scale forest‐to‐cropland conversion, especially in topographically complex regions. Here we integrate multiple high‐resolution satellite observations to show that tropical forest‐to‐cropland conversion reached 1.08 Mha yr −1 during 2004–2019, accelerating by 0.35 ± 0.07 Mha yr −1 per four‐year period ( p < 0.05). These conversions shifted toward steeper terrains, with mean slope rising by 0.16 ± 0.05° per period. Annual forest carbon loss nearly tripled from 46 to 130 TgC yr −1 , increasing at 30 ± 6 TgC yr −1 per period ( p < 0.05). Our findings reveal a systematic shift of agricultural frontiers toward marginal, carbon‐rich tropical forests, underscoring the need for more targeted land‐use governance to support global climate mitigation goals.

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Publication Details

Journal
Geophysical Research Letters
Published
2026-09-04
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1029/2026gl123736
Primary Topic
Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.00

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article

Emerging Hotspots of Cropland Expansion on Steeper Tropical Terrains Intensify Tropical Forest Carbon Loss

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Geophysical Research Letters
Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
article

Emerging Hotspots of Cropland Expansion on Steeper Tropical Terrains Intensify Tropical Forest Carbon Loss

Jinran Xiong, Alan D. Ziegler, Haohan Wei, Yu Feng, Mengxiang Kong, Zhenzhong Zeng, Paul R. Elsen, Chunmiao Zheng, Yao Wang, Xiaoxin Zhang, Xiaofeng Yang, Jie Wu
article en

Abstract

Abstract Tropical deforestation driven by agricultural expansion to meet growing food demand poses a rising threat to the global carbon cycle. While previous studies quantified agriculture‐related carbon losses, the role of cropland expansion remains poorly resolved, partly because widely used agricultural driver data sets are too coarse to detect fine‐scale forest‐to‐cropland conversion, especially in topographically complex regions. Here we integrate multiple high‐resolution satellite observations to show that tropical forest‐to‐cropland conversion reached 1.08 Mha yr −1 during 2004–2019, accelerating by 0.35 ± 0.07 Mha yr −1 per four‐year period ( p < 0.05). These conversions shifted toward steeper terrains, with mean slope rising by 0.16 ± 0.05° per period. Annual forest carbon loss nearly tripled from 46 to 130 TgC yr −1 , increasing at 30 ± 6 TgC yr −1 per period ( p < 0.05). Our findings reveal a systematic shift of agricultural frontiers toward marginal, carbon‐rich tropical forests, underscoring the need for more targeted land‐use governance to support global climate mitigation goals.

Geophysical Research LettersVol. 53(17)
University of Science and Technology of China (CN), Wildlife Conservation Society (US), Nanjing Forestry University (CN), Shanghai Jiao Tong University (CN), Kasetsart University (TH), Sichuan University (CN), Southern University of Science and Technology (CN), Education University of Hong Kong (HK), University of Hong Kong (HK)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Natural Science Foundation of Ningbo
Climate action
Openalex Percentile: Top 13%
Conservation, Biodiversity, and Resource Management
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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