A risk science perspective on inductive risk

Abstract The concept of inductive risk—commonly understood as the possibility of error in accepting or rejecting a scientific hypothesis—has been a topic of discussion in the philosophy of science since the 1950s. The primary focus has been on its implications for the legitimacy of non-epistemic values in science, particularly their role in weighing risks of false positives against false negatives. This paper examines inductive risk through the lens of contemporary risk science. Drawing on recent developments in the conceptualization of risk, it offers new insights into how inductive risk can be assessed and characterized. The analysis is illustrated with the example of testing a new drug. The paper identifies and discusses several strategies for mitigating inductive risk.